The correlation between the percentage of a county’s Hispanic population and its tendency toward Trump was 0.41. Even without Miami-Dade County and all of Texas, the correlation is still 0.30. The Bronx, Los Angeles, Osceola Counties near Orlando, and Hudson and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey are all 40 percent or more Hispanic and have swung at least five percentage points toward Mr. Trump.
Urban vs. Suburban
Biden’s gains were greatest in the suburbs, as was evident immediately after the election. However, with many boroughs among the slowest reported, the picture in those boroughs has only recently become clear.
President Trump not only did better in 2020 in Miami-Dade, Los Angeles and the Bronx than in 2016, but also in Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan and the counties that include the cities of Chicago, Philadelphia, San Jose and San Francisco.
Although the urban counties remain largely democratic, Mr Trump’s margin in those counties improved 1.1 percentage points – an even bigger increase than Trump’s in non-urban counties, which are mostly rural. The gap between city and suburb narrowed in 2020 – and so did the gap between city and country.
Some regional and local patterns offer other possible explanations for the variability in 2020.
Home state loyalties. Arkansas is one of only half a dozen states that approached Mr. Trump. It is possible that Ms. Clinton benefited from a remaining good feeling in the state in 2016 due to her ten-year tenure as First Lady of Arkansas – something Mr. Biden was unable to compensate. (The Fort Smith, Ark. Area was among the top 25 subway areas to swing toward Mr. Trump.)
On the flip side, Mr Biden appeared to be receiving a home state bonus in Delaware that had the third biggest blow to any state’s Mr Trump.
New Castle County, with Wilmington as the county seat, moved nearly eight points towards Mr. Biden. Why did the Salisbury, Md. Underground region have such a big boom against Mr. Trump? One possible reason is that just over half the population of the subway area lives across the state line in Sussex County, Delaware.